[Kaschan]

I'm not. I never said we have to lynch right away. But if my power goes out the last thing I need is more people yelling at me for disappearing all the time. All I'm saying is that I don't know how reliable my internet will be for a while.

[Kaschan]

And when we get to the last few days I always get overexcited, so I like things to happen quick. Fact of the matter is, Janice/HP is on, so the most important NA is in, and our lynch has been practically handed to us on a silver platter.

[Kaschan]

And now I'm alone...great.

[Liosan]

Shit, dammit, I guess I don't think very quickly, and I should stop throwing votes around when I don't fully understand the implications. I'm going WCS here, so that means DGv1 with 1 infected.

We have 2 options:
Lynch Barghast. Honestly, we can't even be 100% sure DiBs gave us the real scum or if he's the only one left, but let's assume he is. No night kills would put us at 4 town v. 3 infected with a finder/disinfecter that would be able to give us another CI or the name of the DG from his night action. Either way, we'd have 1 chance to lynch the DGv1, then HP would have to disinfect the infected who didn't inherit the power to bring it to 4 v. 2 the following day. Alternatively, at 3 v. 3, it would be an effective draw without any kills, as any 3 votes for night would make it clear to HP which players to disinfect. As long as he doesn't disinfect the DG the first night, it would stay at 3 v. 3 and HP would always disinfect the newest person to vote night. At that point, we could probably band together and vote off one of the original night voters before they voted night and either win immediately or bring it back to 3 v. 2 with a clear indication of who the last DG is (actually it might be 3 v. 1 if the other infected doesn't get his night vote in in time). Yeah, so 3 v. 3 versus the cult with no NKs left is actually an inno win as long as HP doesn't disinfect the DG the first night. The cult probably has much better odds trying to get another inno lynch off at 3 v. 3., but we'll have 2 CIs.

Conclusion: As long as we trust DiBs (which could only come after looking carefully at all the posts he referenced), and we get the DG on the day after a Barghast lynch, it doesn't look too grim. In fact, HP will be able to tell us if Kaschan is the DG or not, so it could save a wasted lynch if I am wrong (which it looks like I often am...). If we don't trust DiBs, though, it looks pretty bad, the killer(s) could be somewhere else, and if we lynch an inno, the DG is free to infect them and get them to kill HP, who is our only hope..

Lynch the most likely DG candidate. We don't have to trust DiBs to do this, so that's a bonus, but we would definitely have to get this right. Let's say we do. The last infected becomes DGv2 and infects Barghast. He's gotta do this because he's the only one who can take out HP. Of course, we know this and the following day, under the possibility that the killer is now infected, we have to lynch him anyway. Barghast knows this, though, so has to kill HP tonight in the hopes he gets infected. It's pretty much his only shot to win if he's the only killer left. Of course, the DG knows this, and knows that if HP dies, Barghast is sure to be lynched the next day, so he's free to infect someone else, etc., etc. It's 100% WIFOM, but it looks pretty bad. Let's say HP dies in the night and we're forced to lynch Barghast the following day. If he turns up infected, it's 3 v. 2 and no one is CI. If he's not infected, it's game over. Either way, these are pretty awful odds.

Conclusion: Remove Vote
Goddammit, now my jumpiness just makes me look suspicious as hell, and I feel incredibly silly that I'm diverting attention away from the DG. DiBs had, like, a week to think all this shit through, and I just got the memo.

I'm not voting for Barghast just yet, because I'm certainly not convinced DiBs was telling the truth. He had every reason to give us a fake scum name to make us lynch another inno and give the DG a chance to recruit more scum.

[Galayn Lord]

I'm here. I just have nothing to say at the moment.

I am more concerned about finding the DG than lynching the killer right now, but if you guys want the killer gone, I am fine with that too.

[Kaschan]

I suppose Lio has a point about the posibility that DiBs is feeding us lies. But then again, there have been aspersions cast on Barghast as a killer...but that may be why DiBs chose him as the frame up. Argh, way to create WIFOM Lio.

[Kaschan]

And btw, storm passed quickly, so I have no more worries about losing power.

[Galayn Lord]

See, with his BS case on me and his coasting play, I have no trouble believing Barghast is a killer. So as long as we have 2 innos at the end with him, we win. I'm more worried about the DG right now.

[Kaschan]

Yeah, he is the most obvious danger. But like Lio said, if we leave Barghast alive there's the possibility that he'll do away with our one advantage in the hopes of being infected tonight. Frankly, I find that the biggest danger and will thus be leaving my vote on Barghast.

[Liosan]

Just like to reiterate, that, once you fully think it through, if Barghast is the lone killer, him killing HP tonight is a forgone conclusion. He has no chance of winning as a killer, so he has to take his only chance at becoming the DG's symp. Of course, when you realize that, the chances of him becoming infected tonight are next to nothing, but he still has no reason not to kill HP, as he has no loyalty to the town. He's a free agent, and thus should be considered loyal to the cult since they are his only hope of winning.

His best bet is actually if we don't lynch him, and he plays along as helpful to the town by not killing HP and hopes that he gets recruited later in the fracas, but it just doesn't seem like a risk we should take.

[Galayn Lord]

True enough.

I would still like to hear from HP and from Korlat and Meanas... who else is alive?

Galayn Lord
Liosan
Kaschan
HP
Korlat
Barghast
Meanas
Eloth.

I was forgetting Eloth. Where is that smexy little dragon?

[Kaschan]

Precisely my opinion Lio, but why then do you not add your vote?

[Galayn Lord]

Fuck it I see your guys' point that there would be no reason for barghast to not kill HP.

Vote Barghast

[Kaschan]

Galayn Lord, on Jun 29 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

True enough.

I would still like to hear from HP and from Korlat and Meanas... who else is alive?

Galayn Lord
Liosan
Kaschan
HP
Korlat
Barghast
Meanas
Eloth.

I was forgetting Eloth. Where is that smexy little dragon?

Oh wow. We have a lot of people alive who I'd completely forgotten...8 of them in fact...Lio, if we lynch Barghast no inno will be killed tonight, then its a 4-3 inno advantage. If I understand it correctly, that nullifies your first scenario, and you second scenario is still most dangerous. So, lets lynch Bargh and get on to the new day already.

[Liosan]

Just some numbers, assuming we lynch Barghast:

2 killers including Barghast left and the other one decides to fight against the cult:
Night 5: 1 scum v. 2 cult v. 4 town (1 CI, 2 confirmed not DG)
Day 6: 1 scum v. 2 cult v. 3 town, at this point with the disinfecter and other reveals, I think the cult has a good chance of losing and it will boil down to killer hunt at the end

Same as above, but scum decides to help the cult:
Day 6: 1 scum v. 3 cult v. 2 town (dead HP) with DGv1 definitely still around. Looks bad and the scum has about a 50% of being recruited before it's game over for the innos.

1 killer left who's not Barghast is the same as above. In this case, obviously it would be in our interest to lynch a possible DG and not Barghast.

2 killers who are not Barghast:
Day 6: 2 scum v. 2 cult v. 2 town, which looks like town failure any way you slice it. Even if we lynched off the DG instead of Barghast, the distribution would look about the same.

Honestly, I think 2 killers left is actually pretty unlikely, as they would still have a pretty decent chance of winning, and thus DiBs wouldn't have gone over to the cult. Him naming a fake killer in place of a real one is much more likely, I think. Going with that possibility would assume that DiBs knew who the DG was, or at least knew Barghast wasn't it.

[Hood's Path]

I've been trying to think this through, I think the reason why Dibs outed Barghast was to give the DG a possibility to recruit a killer while we argue if he was setting us up, this would give the DG the best chance to win the game, DIBS ninja's Gamelon while at the same time reveals to him the remaining killer to take me out so that he can be infected.

I was hoping that Amp was the original but we can't assume that.

Meanas comes to mind, but he would have to be either constantly lurking or had well thought out provisionals at place, but considering that we haven't seen him for a long while, I may discount him at the moment.

I think it may be best to operate under the assumption that DG v1 may be alive, cause that then limits the list of suspects:

Meanas, Galayn Lord, and Kaschan.

If it is DGv2 we have to deal with it opens the list up a bit.

[Kaschan]

He was being as detrimental to the killer faction as possible. I'm fairly certain the information is accurate.

Crosspost.

This post has been edited by Kaschan: 29 June 2009 - 07:09 PM

[Liosan]

Kaschan, on Jun 29 2009, 02:45 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Jun 29 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

True enough.

I would still like to hear from HP and from Korlat and Meanas... who else is alive?

Galayn Lord
Liosan
Kaschan
HP
Korlat
Barghast
Meanas
Eloth.

I was forgetting Eloth. Where is that smexy little dragon?

Oh wow. We have a lot of people alive who I'd completely forgotten...8 of them in fact...Lio, if we lynch Barghast no inno will be killed tonight, then its a 4-3 inno advantage. If I understand it correctly, that nullifies your first scenario, and you second scenario is still most dangerous. So, lets lynch Bargh and get on to the new day already.

Patience is a virtue, man. I still don't know if Barghast is a killer, so I would definitely like to hear from him first. I am very uncomfortable stepping exactly where DiBs wants me to step. Definitely need to fully think this through.

[Eloth]

Holy crap. Once again crazy shit happens when I'm away. Ok, I cant really think why Emur would lie - by Killing Gam he tied his fate to that of the DG and would want the DG to have the best chance possible. As a couple of people have said, the killers are a big threat to the DG, so eliminating the killers from the game will help. Unfortunately I dont see how we can leave Barg alive, since if we do he's highly likely to draw an infection. Or take up HP's disinfect every night, making it harder to find the DG. Dunno why Driss would have given up so easily as a killer, but yeah.

It's a pity (or good play depending on how you look at it) that Emur ninja'd before Gam came on again, since we dont know who he disinfected last.

[Kaschan]

Yeah, I know Lio. Either way, I don't think we have 5 people left who post in my daytime, so he likely won't be lynched until I'm asleep anyways.

Edit: Crosspost. Guess this is wrong anyways.

This post has been edited by Kaschan: 29 June 2009 - 07:16 PM