[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 30 hours and 33 minutes remaining

8 Players still alive: D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night

1 vote for Telas: ( Gamelon )
1 vote for Gamelon: ( Telas )

Players not voted: D'riss, Fener, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Tennes

[D'riss]

Gamelon, on May 20 2009, 06:56 PM, said:

@ D'riss, that's why if UB is still alive, Telas really made a brilliant move.

edited to add: You're right, if UB is dead it's much more of a gamble for Telas. However, Telas was put under some pressure yesterday so his skating along wasn't looking to continue.

Game, I don't know if I'd buy it as a brilliant move simply because I am not sure Telas was under heavy suspicion today. It's D-Day if I'm right, and that means if Telas is scum, he put himself in a 50/50 chance of outright winning. If he just laid low instead of fake-revealing, he would have had a 3-in-4 chance of winning without any weird reveals against him because any lynch on someone other than him or UB is a win.

In fact, taking himself from 3-in-4 to 1-in-2 is basically reducing his chances of winning for just today (not the whole game) by 25%. The reason he would have done this, if he was scum, is he knew that if he was in trouble, a late reveal would do no good to save him and would look desperate.

So basically what you are arguing is that Telas 'spent' one-third of his winning-today chances (25% is 1/3 of 75%) to try and win at the potential risk of getting counter-finder-revealed. The item he spent this one-third upon is the chance that he would have been targeted for lynch today and couldn't afford to scramble late.

The real problem with the argument is that, in all of this, Telas is still now at a 50% chance of being lynched if nobody believes him!!! If he was scum, his BEST odds were to instead gamble that he and UB would NOT be targetted today and try to get reveals and stuff to get a lynch to go his way. He is screwed either way if someone claims, "Finder on Telas says scum," but now he's also screwed against a counter-finder reveal.

No, the odds just don't break away well enough for Telas to have made that kind of move. We've seen a boneheaded mistake in this game (morgy45), but Telas, too? After being so careful most of the game?

I think you're the scum, Gamelon.

Vote Gamelon

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4. 30 hours and 31 minutes remaining

8 Players still alive: D'riss, Fener, Gamelon, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Telas, Tennes

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night

1 vote for Telas: ( Gamelon )
2 votes for Gamelon: ( Telas, D'riss )

Players not voted: Fener, Liosan, Ruse, Silanah, Tennes

[Gamelon]

@ D'riss,
The problem with your argument is, even if there is a counter reveal, it generally stands to Mafia reasoning that the first reveal is believed and the burden of proof is the resulting lynch. Telas has been in the woodwork up until now. He "reveals" precisely because he feels he will be believed, and he is confident that even if under suspicion people will vote his claim first to see if he's a real finder. Which, voila, is exactly what you're doing.

I think you're making it out to be a more ballsy move than it really is, because if he pulls it off it is potentially game over. Mafia, like poker, is more than just a game of odds...

[D'riss]

That's a valid point, Gamelon, but I don't know that Telas gets more cred than usual simply because it is D-Day. You probably think that ultimately he's going to win simply because you can't offer anything in response. If you're RI, that makes sense and then Telas wins by trying to push us towards the odds.

I just think the combination of finder reveal out of nowhere with a dead thread is a bit too much to ignore.

But again, we have a LOT of people who haven't posted much lately. Silanah and Liosan have gone quiet, and Ruse and Fener are pretty silent too. We need input and feedback and there's lots of time.

I will agree that poker is like Mafia in that it's more than just odds. The simple fact that the odds are against Telas bluffing could be why he might bluff.

I don't want a speed lynch but for now I still suspect you, Gamelon.

Remove Vote

[Silanah]

Telas, on May 20 2009, 10:14 PM, said:

Ok.

Reveal:

I am the Finder.

Last night I investigated Gamelon.

Gamelon is Big Ben.

Vote Gamelon

On night one I found D'riss, who is not Big Ben.
On Night Two, I found Meanas.

seems i was right about the fucker and his non confrontational play...goddamn people, You should listen to me i know what im talking about

[Silanah]

Ruse, on May 21 2009, 03:02 AM, said:

Damn. Big reveal to digest here.

I'm not sure whether to believe Telas or Gamelon here. From my experience, I've come to hate finder reveals, especially at this point in the game. More often than not, a fake reveal becomes possible with the real finder dead, thereby allowing scum to control the game and drive it forward.
On the other hand, the math does indicate that now would be the ideal time for a finder reveal.

I'm inclined to believe D'riss's first two scenarios over the third since it'd be nigh impossible to win since an inno CF would get him lynched the subsequent day.



I'm going to mull it over while I go to bed...hopefully there'll be more discussion tomorrow.

I dont like this post

i think Ruse could very well be UB....especially now that i think on it he could have been fake symping me to get a lynch on me.

[Tennes]

Right, thoughts:

First I think it's important that we wait for everyone to have checked in before we decide who to lynch. Mainly to allow for any counter reveals but also to check if anyone is silenced.

One of either Telas or Gamelon have to be scum of some type. If Telas is telling the truth, Gam is BB, if Gam is telling the truth Telas is either BB or UB.

As has been mentione before, today is D-Day, so if we lynch wrong today we lose. Meaning we dont have the liberty of 'testing' the finder reveal. If Telas's reveal is fake it will cost us the game. There are reasons to believe and not believe that Telas is telling the truth. We dont know for a fact there was a finder, and with half the people dead we cant be sure that if there was one he is still alive to counter. So if Telas is faking, there's a not great, but still reasonably good chance he would get away with it. At the same time there's every chance he's telling the truth, Gam has been pretty under the radar and there's nothing to suggest that he isnt scum. Like I said, one of the two is lying, we have to figure out which one today.

Whether or not someone has been silenced is also important. This train of thought is a little convoluted and WIFOM, so sorry if I sound like a bit of a crazy person. If noone is silenced today it means that either someone guarded UB, UB withheld for some reason or Emur was in fact UB and Telas is BB who faked being silenced to make it appear that UB was still alive. We cant be sure, but it's worth keeping in mind. Of course if someone else is silenced today this is all moot. What it does mean though is that if Telas was faking being silenced, then we have an extra day, meaning we can lynch Gam and not lose the game. But if that was the case, Telas revealing now doesnt really make sense. So at this point I'm more inclined to believe Telas really.

[Silanah]

D'riss, on May 21 2009, 06:42 AM, said:

That's a valid point, Gamelon, but I don't know that Telas gets more cred than usual simply because it is D-Day. You probably think that ultimately he's going to win simply because you can't offer anything in response. If you're RI, that makes sense and then Telas wins by trying to push us towards the odds.

I just think the combination of finder reveal out of nowhere with a dead thread is a bit too much to ignore.

But again, we have a LOT of people who haven't posted much lately. Silanah and Liosan have gone quiet, and Ruse and Fener are pretty silent too. We need input and feedback and there's lots of time.

I will agree that poker is like Mafia in that it's more than just odds. The simple fact that the odds are against Telas bluffing could be why he might bluff.

I don't want a speed lynch but for now I still suspect you, Gamelon.

Remove Vote

I havent "gone quiet"...the fucking boards have been down every time i am on!!

Anyways...its not D-day today at all....we can lynch Gamelon today and telas tomorrow if he is lying.
So either way we have scum.

[Silanah]

oh...

remove vote
Vote Gamelon

[Silanah]

wait....might be dday

remove vote

[Gamelon]

Tennes, on May 21 2009, 08:03 AM, said:

Right, thoughts:

First I think it's important that we wait for everyone to have checked in before we decide who to lynch. Mainly to allow for any counter reveals but also to check if anyone is silenced.

One of either Telas or Gamelon have to be scum of some type. If Telas is telling the truth, Gam is BB, if Gam is telling the truth Telas is either BB or UB.

As has been mentione before, today is D-Day, so if we lynch wrong today we lose. Meaning we dont have the liberty of 'testing' the finder reveal. If Telas's reveal is fake it will cost us the game. There are reasons to believe and not believe that Telas is telling the truth. We dont know for a fact there was a finder, and with half the people dead we cant be sure that if there was one he is still alive to counter. So if Telas is faking, there's a not great, but still reasonably good chance he would get away with it. At the same time there's every chance he's telling the truth, Gam has been pretty under the radar and there's nothing to suggest that he isnt scum. Like I said, one of the two is lying, we have to figure out which one today.

Whether or not someone has been silenced is also important. This train of thought is a little convoluted and WIFOM, so sorry if I sound like a bit of a crazy person. If noone is silenced today it means that either someone guarded UB, UB withheld for some reason or Emur was in fact UB and Telas is BB who faked being silenced to make it appear that UB was still alive. We cant be sure, but it's worth keeping in mind. Of course if someone else is silenced today this is all moot. What it does mean though is that if Telas was faking being silenced, then we have an extra day, meaning we can lynch Gam and not lose the game. But if that was the case, Telas revealing now doesnt really make sense. So at this point I'm more inclined to believe Telas really.

Tennes, I see what your logic is in the part I underlined in your post. However, the only reason for Telas to fake silence is because he is scum, so it doesn't really make sense to let him go a day and vote for me if you believe that's the case.

As for the "under the radar" comments that people are making, I have been making a deliberate effort to pay close attention to the thread and bring up everything I notice. The reason I'm playing this way can largely be blamed on Tapper. In the spoiler thread for the last game, Tapper gave a really excellent explanation as to what it takes to play a good roleless inno. It's good for innos to make cases and push people around, but at the same time it's also important for us to play cleanly, so that we don't muddy the waters for the scum to hide in. After playing two games where I was all over the place with various accusations, I realized I was probably more hurting than helping and I got lynched both games for my play. So, I've been trying out a kinder/gentler approach. I just wish someone could have really slipped up somewhere so I could have better contributed (and so Meanas wouldn't have called me a "sheep").

edit: removed an extra "to"

This post has been edited by Gamelon: 21 May 2009 - 07:30 AM

[D'riss]

I have lots of math about how it is almost certainly D-day. Everyone has talked today except Liosan and Fener. If one of them is not silenced, we probably need to see if anybody reveals guard. Problem is, UB may reveal guard and that could screw us big time.

Goin to bed, I assume the forums will be down when I wake up so I'll check the new place.

This post has been edited by D'riss: 21 May 2009 - 07:35 AM

[Silanah]

I want to hear from telas and his reasoning for choosing gamelon lastnight?

[Silanah]

I cant believe its day 4 and its D-Day....wow....only get 4 lynch atttmepts out of 15 players rather harsh.

[Gamelon]

Well, we can blame Vengeance and a mistaken vig. A vig right now would be great actually, because it would give us a better option for unraveling the he-said/he-said that Telas and I are in now.

[Silanah]

well we never lynched last night so the mod kill is cancelled out there.

I suppose would have definitely have had one more day if we didnt have a vig with an itchy finger.

[Telas]

Last night I chose Gamelon for being too helpful. He's been someone I'd considered finding from very early, bad gut feelings, and too helpfully under-radar.

Also, he randomly jumped on my train which I didn't like, as did Tennes. So did D'riss, but I knew he was inno.

Was pretty much between Gamelon, Silanah, Liosan(who I think is UB) and Tennes.

Obviously not gonna pick the person I think is UB.
Silanah was agressive earlier, and didn't just go with the flow. Still thought he could be BB, as I tried to say in pictures, I thought he was being agressive to make it look non under radar.
In the end I pretty much went just with gut.

[Tennes]

Gamelon, on May 21 2009, 09:29 AM, said:

Tennes, on May 21 2009, 08:03 AM, said:

Right, thoughts:

First I think it's important that we wait for everyone to have checked in before we decide who to lynch. Mainly to allow for any counter reveals but also to check if anyone is silenced.

One of either Telas or Gamelon have to be scum of some type. If Telas is telling the truth, Gam is BB, if Gam is telling the truth Telas is either BB or UB.

As has been mentione before, today is D-Day, so if we lynch wrong today we lose. Meaning we dont have the liberty of 'testing' the finder reveal. If Telas's reveal is fake it will cost us the game. There are reasons to believe and not believe that Telas is telling the truth. We dont know for a fact there was a finder, and with half the people dead we cant be sure that if there was one he is still alive to counter. So if Telas is faking, there's a not great, but still reasonably good chance he would get away with it. At the same time there's every chance he's telling the truth, Gam has been pretty under the radar and there's nothing to suggest that he isnt scum. Like I said, one of the two is lying, we have to figure out which one today.

Whether or not someone has been silenced is also important. This train of thought is a little convoluted and WIFOM, so sorry if I sound like a bit of a crazy person. If noone is silenced today it means that either someone guarded UB, UB withheld for some reason or Emur was in fact UB and Telas is BB who faked being silenced to make it appear that UB was still alive. We cant be sure, but it's worth keeping in mind. Of course if someone else is silenced today this is all moot. What it does mean though is that if Telas was faking being silenced, then we have an extra day, meaning we can lynch Gam and not lose the game. But if that was the case, Telas revealing now doesnt really make sense. So at this point I'm more inclined to believe Telas really.

Tennes, I see what your logic is in the part I underlined in your post. However, the only reason for Telas to fake silence is because he is scum, so it doesn't really make sense to let him go a day and vote for me if you believe that's the case.

As for the "under the radar" comments that people are making, I have been making a deliberate effort to pay close attention to the thread and bring up everything I notice. The reason I'm playing this way can largely be blamed on Tapper. In the spoiler thread for the last game, Tapper gave a really excellent explanation as to what it takes to play a good roleless inno. It's good for innos to make cases and push people around, but at the same time it's also important for us to play cleanly, so that we don't muddy the waters for the scum to hide in. After playing two games where I was all over the place with various accusations, I realized I was probably more hurting than helping and I got lynched both games for my play. So, I've been trying out a kinder/gentler approach. I just wish someone could have really slipped up somewhere so I could have better contributed (and so Meanas wouldn't have called me a "sheep"). tongue.gif

edit: removed an extra "to"

The problem is there is no way to know for sure that he is lying. If noone is silenced, the chances of him lying are better, but we wont know for sure. The thing is, if he did fake being silenced, we have the possibility to test his claim without it meaning the end of the game if we are wrong (only in the case of UB being dead and him faking being silenced, which is one several different possibilities). If he is telling the truth though then UB must be alive, since he wouldnt fake being silenced. So at the end of the day we have the following:

Telas is telling the truth we lynch Gam - one scum lynched
Telas is telling the truth we lynch Telas - instant lose
Telas is lying and we lynch Gam - slight chance UB is dead and D-day is only tomorrow
Telas is lying and we lynch Telas - one scum lynched

So with no other facts presented (not knowing about possible guards or whether or not UB is still alive) then lynching Gam results in either a scum lynch or a slight chance to play one more day and lynch Telas. If we lynch Telas there is no possibility of getting that extra day play. Since at this point it is completely your word against his, which means we're effectively making an educated guess. Since we're basically gambling the result of the whole game on which of you is telling the truth, I'd rather go for the option which has a chance we can get way with being wrong, no matter how small a chance it is.

Obviously if someone is silenced or if there are more reveals then we will have to re-evaluate.

[Telas]

D'riss, on May 21 2009, 03:34 AM, said:

I have lots of math about how it is almost certainly D-day. Everyone has talked today except Liosan and Fener. If one of them is not silenced, we probably need to see if anybody reveals guard. Problem is, UB may reveal guard and that could screw us big time.

Goin to bed, I assume the forums will be down when I wake up so I'll check the new place.

Yeah, I was hoping that someone would be silenced as it would prove I wasn't. Of course, UB may have realised this and witheld, but I'm hoping that's not the case.

A guard reveal would be good, because then we can just go with "Lynch one, Guard the other" which is a safe option.

Obviously got to consider it could be UB revealing but still.