[Anomandaris]

I think Path-Shaper said there was a total mix up in sending out the PM's so if the person that got the Harmonical Hombre PM could identify themselves in thread we can get this sorted out.

[Serc]

No, Emurlahn, he wouldn't be afraid to vote, I don't think, at least early on, because he will still be hidden in the 6 other people who are also on that train. And in theory, lots of people could die on the first night.

[Emurlahn]

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

No, Emurlahn, he wouldn't be afraid to vote, I don't think, at least early on, because he will still be hidden in the 6 other people who are also on that train. And in theory, lots of people could die on the first night.

Yes, 6 other people, and lots of people dying at night.
So, if lots die in the first night, that suspect pool is nicely reduced.
Also, percentage wise, that's massive.

Yes, he'd have 6 people to hide in.
It would also clear 6 people, thats 46% of everyone playing. Also, if that 6 know he's one of the others, they can cover them all with their provisionals.

As the game wears on, fewer and fewer of the people he hides in will survive, and it'd narrow him down further and further.

[Serc]

Yes, Emurlahn, but it is possible for this game to be over at the end of night one, with so many dead. And so I don't think its a good idea to say he won't be on a vote train. It kind of makes you look innocent if we do that, me too, but you are the one arguing for the thought that he wouldn't be on a train. Thats not an accusation, I just think you are thinking about this in the wrong way.

[Anomandaris]

Emurlahn, on Apr 15 2009, 02:54 PM, said:

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

No, Emurlahn, he wouldn't be afraid to vote, I don't think, at least early on, because he will still be hidden in the 6 other people who are also on that train. And in theory, lots of people could die on the first night.

Yes, 6 other people, and lots of people dying at night.
So, if lots die in the first night, that suspect pool is nicely reduced.
Also, percentage wise, that's massive.

Yes, he'd have 6 people to hide in.
It would also clear 6 people, thats 46% of everyone playing. Also, if that 6 know he's one of the others, they can cover them all with their provisionals.

As the game wears on, fewer and fewer of the people he hides in will survive, and it'd narrow him down further and further.

cept if we lynch and 5 people die tonight, that aren't the HH, the game is over.

[Emurlahn]

What?

I'm not sure why me saying that he probably won't be on a train makes me look innocent at all.

In fact if people follow through that line of thought then it makes me look worse, because I could've voted Rashan and pretended it was an accident to entirely avoid a train.

I'm not saying he won't be on a train at all, it's possible he won't but that's not my point. I'm saying he'll probably be careful where he votes, because he won't want to be on a successful train.

[Emurlahn]

Anomandaris, on Apr 15 2009, 08:00 PM, said:

Emurlahn, on Apr 15 2009, 02:54 PM, said:

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 07:50 PM, said:

No, Emurlahn, he wouldn't be afraid to vote, I don't think, at least early on, because he will still be hidden in the 6 other people who are also on that train. And in theory, lots of people could die on the first night.

Yes, 6 other people, and lots of people dying at night.
So, if lots die in the first night, that suspect pool is nicely reduced.
Also, percentage wise, that's massive.

Yes, he'd have 6 people to hide in.
It would also clear 6 people, thats 46% of everyone playing. Also, if that 6 know he's one of the others, they can cover them all with their provisionals.

As the game wears on, fewer and fewer of the people he hides in will survive, and it'd narrow him down further and further.

cept if we lynch and 5 people die tonight, that aren't the HH, the game is over.

I personally doubt many people will put in actions.

13 people playing.
If you put in an action and hit a killer, you count as a killer.
13 players, each sumbitting two provisionals, what are the chances that you won't have an action on you?

So, I expect rather few people to submit, just out of survival instinct, you have a much larger chance of surviving if you don't.

Ironically this makes it safer to submit...

[Serc]

Ok, I missed tthat point. I thought you said he would avoid any train. Which, Emurlahn, if you think about it, he would pretty much avoid ALL successful trains, due to us mostly all having to agree on a lynch prior to the vote.

[Emurlahn]

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 08:05 PM, said:

Ok, I missed tthat point. I thought you said he would avoid any train. Which, Emurlahn, if you think about it, he would pretty much avoid ALL successful trains, due to us mostly all having to agree on a lynch prior to the vote.

Yes, which is why I expect him to be elsewhere than on that train.

Actually i've just though about it a bit more, it doesn't matter, he's going to be narrowed down quickly anyhow.

If there is a successful train:

If it takes more people than it should- He's one of the first 7 on the train.

If it takes 7 people- He is one of the other six(now 5, left)

So numerically it actually makes more sense for him to be on the lynch, it leaves it 6 people to hide amongst as opposed to 4.

This post has been edited by Emurlahn: 15 April 2009 - 07:11 PM

[Kessobahn]

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 08:05 PM, said:

Ok, I missed tthat point. I thought you said he would avoid any train. Which, Emurlahn, if you think about it, he would pretty much avoid ALL successful trains, due to us mostly all having to agree on a lynch prior to the vote.

what about a 7-6 vote split? this means we have to lynch vote Rashan or Tellan, which seems rough because they are hit because 'lol didn't fully read rules' but it also means we'll have the killer narrowed down to basically one-of-six or seven people.

(he votes with train, votes split 6-6-1 nobody is lynched but we know he is in the majority group of seven; alternatively votes split 7-5-1, lynch is successful, and we know he's in the minority group of six) that's cutting the number of suspects in half each night, not counting any other stuff obviously

[Kessobahn]

similar-thought crosspost with Emurlahn.

[Emurlahn]

See my above post, he's going to be split down anyway.

[Emurlahn]

Yeah, can lynch anyone, it doesn't matter, he'll be narrowed down to a fairly small group.

[Kessobahn]

yeah good point, just pick and lynch and see what happens at vote 7

[Emurlahn]

Yeah, whoever we lynch is going to narrow it down.

The problem being the further it's narrowed down the fewer people left, closer he is to winning, and if lots of people die at night and he ain't one, we're going to need to find him fast.

[Gamelon]

Am I the only person who hasn't checked in? Well, now I have.

[Serc]

Well, My vote on Tellan was a joke, so I would rather not be responsible for his lynch due to my mistake. I guess me or Emurlahn would be good coices, if for nothing other than the information. Not that I am volunteering or anything, but as it stands all we have to go on is a day one lynch, which will probably be random anyway. Unless someone catches somethin suspicious.

[Serc]

Hi, Gamelon, how do you know everyone has checked in? And if thats true, that means that the Hombre can end day anytime. Do you think he will wait until we lynch?

[Serc]

Where did everybody go?

[Anomandaris]

Serc, on Apr 15 2009, 03:28 PM, said:

Hi, Gamelon, how do you know everyone has checked in? And if thats true, that means that the Hombre can end day anytime. Do you think he will wait until we lynch?

I went through the thread and got 13. Strange that he counted before posting. Do you think the hombre would be the last to check in? Maybe the hostage?