[Mentalist]

ooh, cross-post.

hmm, well I really can't ccuse JA of holding off a lynch till the end, considerign I was almost lynched based on the same basic premise.
if both me and him are alive tomorrow, however, I'd ahve to reconsider that.

[Yellow]

Reading today's posts has really struck me as JA setting things up for the next day. He held off on voting Morgoth, and he even defended him pretty heavily until he was forced to hammer or look guilty as fuck... and as soon as he did it, he started pointing the finger at other people.

That thing above about guaranteeing a win if we lynch both me and Gavin was beautiful. There's 5 of us left. Lynching two players, and NKing two others in the meantime = a great big win for the killers. JA is looking well suspect.

[Mentalist]

for the record, i'm not gonna vote untill we hear some thoughts from Kurt.

[Mentalist]

Yellow, on Mar 27 2009, 02:29 PM, said:

Reading today's posts has really struck me as JA setting things up for the next day. He held off on voting Morgoth, and he even defended him pretty heavily until he was forced to hammer or look guilty as fuck... and as soon as he did it, he started pointing the finger at other people.

That thing above about guaranteeing a win if we lynch both me and Gavin was beautiful. There's 5 of us left. Lynching two players, and NKing two others in the meantime = a great big win for the killers. JA is looking well suspect.

only thing is, it was Morgoth that sid it, not JA.

[Yellow]

In fact,

vote Jump Around

I'm getting more convinced by the second

edit - cross post.

Are you sure? I will go check.

This post has been edited by Yellow: 27 March 2009 - 06:31 PM

[Mentalist]

talk about your prematurity...

I haveno doubts Kurt will jump on this since he has this predisposition towards lynching JA... but i'm not convinced at all.

[Yellow]

No, it was JA... but I got Kurt and Gavin mixed up.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 03:10 PM, said:

I'm quite sure we could garantee a win by lynching Yellow and Kurt. Sadly, we can't afford to lynch us three, so I'll have to see how much energy it will take me to convince you I'm innocent, but if I can't manage, chose well tomorrow.

[Mentalist]

Morgoth, on Mar 27 2009, 08:01 AM, said:

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 12:52 PM, said:

Morgoth, on Mar 27 2009, 01:30 PM, said:

Any idea who else the killer could be if not Mentalist?

Hm.. if not Ment then I think Gavin or Yellow might be it. Both have played the sort of background, half contributing sort of game that killers often stumble into. Yellow has picked up his act but whether that's because he got more time or feared he was taking it a bit too far I can' tell yet.

To explain my suspicions on Gavin I would have to make a case I think. For me that's the best way to order my thoughts, but I'll hold that off until day 5.

Yellow, this is the post I was referring to.

[Mentalist]

Yellow, on Mar 27 2009, 02:32 PM, said:

No, it was JA... but I got Kurt and Gavin mixed up.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 03:10 PM, said:

I'm quite sure we could garantee a win by lynching Yellow and Kurt. Sadly, we can't afford to lynch us three, so I'll have to see how much energy it will take me to convince you I'm innocent, but if I can't manage, chose well tomorrow.

you know, i am sorta in agreement with him here... both of you, due to your RL circumstances, have been pretty damn low when it comes to radars.

some things in your play, however make me trust you more, unless you were doind some ultra-distancing from Morgoth.
so i'd like to lynch kurt today, then JA tomorrow, if it comes down to it.

[Yellow]

Ah, right.

But my point was that JA is saying we're guaranteed a win by lynching both me and Kurt... which when combined with NKs means that the killers would win.

[Jump Around]

Well, after a scan-through, I can't find a single moment where Kurt and Morgoth quoted each other's posts or even mentioned each other's names. That's pushing normal gameplay, or even the laws of probabilities.

With Yellow, on the other hand, there's been some stuff thrown, like Ment notes, plus this post by Yellow:

Yellow, on Mar 26 2009, 09:41 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Mar 26 2009, 07:38 PM, said:

So you suspect me cause I suspect the people who I have voted for so far in the game and JA??? Ummm ok. Well done. Your right I think that we should make sure that JA and Morgy and Mental stay around....

No, don't misrepresent me. I suspect you because you clearly stated you suspected a player (Ment), but you would prefer we lynched either JA or Morgoth.

And your first vote of the day was a completely different player (Gavin).

So you're basically just looking for a) a quick lynch, a lynch of a troublesome player, c) to lay groundwork for your next lynch.

Now, in a CF game, which is more probable, that they would ignore one another completely, or throw little stuff like this?

[Mentalist]

well, you have to realize that he HAS to work from the assumption he's inno... so, form his PoV, it makes sense, especially, as he PI-ed me and Gavin for voting off Morgy.

so, no, I don't think that statement in itself is enough to convict him. Though that doesn't mean i'm willing to trust him 100%
as such, my strategy right now is to hedge our bets by lynching the more suspicious of the "quiet player" --those being you and Kurt.
if the game doesn't end at that, and I live till tomorrow, i'll have to reconsider my stance.

[Jump Around]

Yellow, on Mar 27 2009, 08:32 PM, said:

No, it was JA... but I got Kurt and Gavin mixed up.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 03:10 PM, said:

I'm quite sure we could garantee a win by lynching Yellow and Kurt. Sadly, we can't afford to lynch us three, so I'll have to see how much energy it will take me to convince you I'm innocent, but if I can't manage, chose well tomorrow.

Well, duh, I know I'm inno, and am quite convinced Ment and Gavin are too.

This was from my POV, it was not meant as an argument or a suggestion.

I understand the shit I'm in, I'm not stupid. But then again a huge part of it is caused by event outside my hands. The dktorode case is a pain in my ass (and was unwarranted - he can keep his paranoid fantasies where I think next time he has one). As for the case on Morgoth, I had my own on Ment which everyone was dismissing as lame without explanation, so sorry if I just don't go "duur, ok".

As for waiting, my number 1 choice was at L-2, so unlike Ment I had reasons to wait.

This post has been edited by Jump Around: 27 March 2009 - 06:47 PM

[Mentalist]

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

Well, after a scan-through, I can't find a single moment where Kurt and Morgoth quoted each other's posts or even mentioned each other's names. That's pushing normal gameplay, or even the laws of probabilities.

With Yellow, on the other hand, there's been some stuff thrown, like Ment notes, plus this post by Yellow:

Yellow, on Mar 26 2009, 09:41 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Mar 26 2009, 07:38 PM, said:

So you suspect me cause I suspect the people who I have voted for so far in the game and JA??? Ummm ok. Well done. Your right I think that we should make sure that JA and Morgy and Mental stay around....

No, don't misrepresent me. I suspect you because you clearly stated you suspected a player (Ment), but you would prefer we lynched either JA or Morgoth.

And your first vote of the day was a completely different player (Gavin).

So you're basically just looking for a) a quick lynch, a lynch of a troublesome player, c) to lay groundwork for your next lynch.

Now, in a CF game, which is more probable, that they would ignore one another completely, or throw little stuff like this?

ok, I don't get how this implicates Yellow, tbh. explain?
Venge WAS acting kinda all over the place yesterday. he was inno, granted, and I can see the pressure vote on Gavin, and all, but the bit about holding off a lynch and teh mixed signals thing makes me think he was very confused yesterday.

[Yellow]

Vengeance was very certain about Morgoth today, with the following post, which put him at L-1 I believe (unless it was L-2, but I don't think it was):

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 01:36 PM, said:

Ok I am here. Frankly I could go either way in regards to lynching Morgy or Mental. Both seem to be playing slightly off. I think that it comes down to whether I buy Mentals excuses for not seeing the set up after bent had gone back and fixed it. His bit with Bubba waiting for ever to vote was strange. But to me if he was scum he would have hammered not waffled.
Morgy has been playing slightly off. He got rid of Grief cause he doesn't like spammers, he got rid of dibs cause that is what morgy does if he is a killer. Dkt was just cream on the top. I think that the killer is Morgy.


Vote Morgoth

Not only did JA defend Morgoth against this post, but he also defended him against Gavin too.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 01:48 PM, said:

Gavin, on Mar 27 2009, 03:35 PM, said:

Damn what happened to Veng and Kurt? Both were viewing the thread and now they have disappeared.
Looking like an hour to go. So you wouldn't switch to Morgoth to get the lynch there JA?

Make me a case and I might.

The only case I've seen is based on the fact that we're partners, so sorry if I call bullshit. Actually, if Morgoth was killer, he would have killed me last night, not dktorode. Me dying at night would prove dktorode wrong and eliminate the only case on him that appeared, whereas killing dktorode just increased the pressure on him.

Unless you're arguing he's keeping me alive to toy with me, but then he's a sick bastard

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 01:50 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 03:47 PM, said:

Hmmmm I saw JA for a second. I wonder if he will hammer Morgy or just let it time out.

If there's a L-1 and my vote is needed, my vote will be cast. Keep your attitude out.

Specially with

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 03:36 PM, said:

Morgy has been playing slightly off. He got rid of Grief cause he doesn't like spammers, he got rid of dibs cause that is what morgy does if he is a killer. Dkt was just cream on the top. I think that the killer is Morgy.

That your case?

Once Morgoth got lynched, which VPI'd Venge because he was definite about lynching him, JA had to kill Venge, cos none of us would have lynched him after successfully finding a killer.

[Mentalist]

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 02:46 PM, said:

Yellow, on Mar 27 2009, 08:32 PM, said:

No, it was JA... but I got Kurt and Gavin mixed up.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 03:10 PM, said:

I'm quite sure we could garantee a win by lynching Yellow and Kurt. Sadly, we can't afford to lynch us three, so I'll have to see how much energy it will take me to convince you I'm innocent, but if I can't manage, chose well tomorrow.

Well, duh, I know I'm inno, and am quite convinced Ment and Gavin are too.

This was from my POV, it was not meant as an argument or a suggestion.

I understand the shit I'm in, I'm not stupid. But then again a huge part of it is caused by event outside my hands. The dktorode case is a pain in my ass (and was unwarranted - he can keep his paranoid fantasies where I think next time he has one). As for the case on Morgoth, I had my own on Ment which everyone was dismissing as lame without explanation, so sorry if I just don't go "duur, ok".

As for waiting, my number 1 choice was at L-2, so unlike Ment I had reasons to wait.

see, this is why i'm reluctant to vote you off today. your actions make logical sense from an inno's PoV.
but i'm not sure why you see yellow as more suspicious then Kurt.

[Mentalist]

Yellow, on Mar 27 2009, 02:50 PM, said:

Vengeance was very certain about Morgoth today, with the following post, which put him at L-1 I believe (unless it was L-2, but I don't think it was):

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 01:36 PM, said:

Ok I am here. Frankly I could go either way in regards to lynching Morgy or Mental. Both seem to be playing slightly off. I think that it comes down to whether I buy Mentals excuses for not seeing the set up after bent had gone back and fixed it. His bit with Bubba waiting for ever to vote was strange. But to me if he was scum he would have hammered not waffled.
Morgy has been playing slightly off. He got rid of Grief cause he doesn't like spammers, he got rid of dibs cause that is what morgy does if he is a killer. Dkt was just cream on the top. I think that the killer is Morgy.


Vote Morgoth

Not only did JA defend Morgoth against this post, but he also defended him against Gavin too.

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 01:48 PM, said:

Gavin, on Mar 27 2009, 03:35 PM, said:

Damn what happened to Veng and Kurt? Both were viewing the thread and now they have disappeared.
Looking like an hour to go. So you wouldn't switch to Morgoth to get the lynch there JA?

Make me a case and I might.

The only case I've seen is based on the fact that we're partners, so sorry if I call bullshit. Actually, if Morgoth was killer, he would have killed me last night, not dktorode. Me dying at night would prove dktorode wrong and eliminate the only case on him that appeared, whereas killing dktorode just increased the pressure on him.

Unless you're arguing he's keeping me alive to toy with me, but then he's a sick bastard

Jump Around, on Mar 27 2009, 01:50 PM, said:

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 03:47 PM, said:

Hmmmm I saw JA for a second. I wonder if he will hammer Morgy or just let it time out.

If there's a L-1 and my vote is needed, my vote will be cast. Keep your attitude out.

Specially with

Vengeance, on Mar 27 2009, 03:36 PM, said:

Morgy has been playing slightly off. He got rid of Grief cause he doesn't like spammers, he got rid of dibs cause that is what morgy does if he is a killer. Dkt was just cream on the top. I think that the killer is Morgy.

That your case?

Once Morgoth got lynched, which VPI'd Venge because he was definite about lynching him, JA had to kill Venge, cos none of us would have lynched him after successfully finding a killer.

with all due respect to dkt, whose case apparently guided Gavin's decision, my own reason for voting Morgy was becasue I was convinced that Venge was symping him earlier.
So, no I don't think the Morgoth case was in any way airtight, and frankly I was amazed to find out I was still alive this morning.
I reallly don't see what did JA have to gain by stalling like that if he was scum--he HAD to know how it would look, ffs, he was trying to get ME lynched for doing the exact same thing! if he was scum he'd either flat-out refuse to vote him, or he would vote right away, to sever any possible connection.
As for why Venge died--that's WIFOM. I'm not gonna go into that.

[Bent]

Go sign up for Gem's next heroes game if you haven't already. This in no way reflects on the current game, but Me, JA and Morgy got signed up, without signing up, lol.

[Jump Around]

Well, between Yellow/Kurt I think my choice would be Kurt. For his own game style or just cruising around, and his complete lack of interaction with Morgoth. I know it's CF, and the scum knows it, but the probabilities of those two just completely acting like they're not even aware the other is playing is too far out to consider they didn't do it subconciously.


If we were dealing with a pair of killers, I would not dismiss Gavin and Ment so easily. But without them being able to communicate, I can't see it. If Ment was Morgoth's symp, Ment's CF would have come up inno so Morgoth would not have gained anything by having him lynched, quite the contrary. As for Gavin, if he did this to his own master without being able to talk to him off-thread is too... cold-hearted to consider. It's good strategy in the long term, but to take that decision himself instead of following the easier Ment lynch? I don't see it. If so, though, that Gavin should be hunted for many games to come, he's worst than me, dibs and Morgoth put together.

[Yellow]

I still think it's you

Right, I'm off to go do something more productive. It will probably involve white wine (calm down, Tapper love)... I will be back shortly!

This post has been edited by Yellow: 27 March 2009 - 07:04 PM