[Silanah]

D'riss, on Feb 13 2009, 05:18 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 13 2009, 10:12 AM, said:

D'riss, on Feb 13 2009, 03:09 PM, said:

That's what I meant. I wasn't sure of those who voted for HP which did so because of potential leadership or fire membership.

well, that was one issue I had with the HP case to begin with--it was based off his supposed "distancing" from Fire. in retrospect it makes sense why a Fire member would spearhead the effort, --it was his own attempt to distance himself from Fire.

I'm not sure voting purely based on factions is a good idea though.
ofc, in the case of Fire, with them being down to half their original members, chances of hitting a numbered player are really good, if we want to go down that path.

Out of 8 players, 4 died. The chance a random player is numbered is 3/8, so the chances of none of those 4 being numbered is extremely slim (5/8*4/7*3/6*2/5 or 1/14->7%, in fact) so maybe not. I imagine 1 or 2 of their numbered guys are already dead, so the chances might not be much better.

Edit: Crosspost with Silanah

Silanah, part of the argument against serc was that he voted with HP (or was it the other way around?)
Therefore, if the hp/fire argument is weakened so is serc's.

The thing is, though, that the kills wouldn't be random. I think it's easier to kill a BM at night, as well as easier to lynch a BM or 7 during the day. I think it is possible that Fire has all 3 leaders remaining, although I think 2 is probably more likely.

[Galayn Lord]

agreed it's one reason I can see for continuing to look for fire people--Statistically, if you find Fire, there's at least a 50% chance they're numbered.

[Galayn Lord]

gotta go print somehting back in 15.

[D'riss]

Also GL, the exact chances are:

If 1 Fire leader is dead, the permutations are:
3/8*5/7*4/6*3/5
5/8*3/7*4/6*3/5
5/8*4/7*3/6*3/5
5/8*4/7*3/6*3/5

or 38%

If 2 Fire leaders are dead, the permutations are:
3/8*2/7*5/6*4/5

times 4, that's 28.6%

All 3 cannot be dead since we'd have received notification of distributed blackmasks.

Which means that a 50/50 shot at the blackmasks would be ~38%. Or 17.5% chance a random fire member would be a leader.

Then we add 1/3*28.6% or ~9.5%...so we get a 27% chance.

Well, I just wasted 10 minutes. Could've just said 1/4.

This post has been edited by D'riss: 13 February 2009 - 03:36 PM

[Galayn Lord]

your maths are confusing,

the way I see it, since we've had no announcement that Fire's out, there must be a third or a first, so 25% chance right there, since there's 4 left. also, chances are good either a 7th or the other leader or both are still alive, so with 4 fires left, 2 or 3 are likely to b numbered, thus a 50-75% chance of getting a numbered player

[Shadow]

Why oh why is it sae to assume that HP isn't fire, again? Something I missed apparently. Can someone tell me this?

[Galayn Lord]

lol @ edit
a quarter's a quarantee.
but half or 3 quarters are more likely.

[Galayn Lord]

Shadow, on Feb 13 2009, 04:40 PM, said:

Why oh why is it sae to assume that HP isn't fire, again? Something I missed apparently. Can someone tell me this?

because he was attacked by Fire
Seems unlikely that we'd have 2 fires as only lynch suspects two days in a row,

[Shadow]

Galayn Lord, on Feb 13 2009, 07:42 AM, said:

Shadow, on Feb 13 2009, 04:40 PM, said:

Why oh why is it sae to assume that HP isn't fire, again? Something I missed apparently. Can someone tell me this?

because he was attacked by Fire
Seems unlikely that we'd have 2 fires as only lynch suspects two days in a row,

Ahh, Unlikely, but not impossible. I just thought that someone was trying to CI (or confirm not fire) on HP. However I still think he is a leader(not mine) of a facrtion. And as such needs to go.

Vote Hood's Path



As an aside, I bet the fire leader(s) are pulling their hair out! HA!

[Hood's Path]

Ha!, does anybody still think I'm on team Fire?

I am having a hard time making heads or tails of this game so I'll try thinking out loud and see what happens.

Firstly, I wonder why I'm still alive and I come up with the following possibilities:

1) nobody targeted me or only one BM targeted me, seems unlikely to me but I don't know anybody else's mind so it's definitely possible. OR...

2) A leader or leader team targeted me and thus guarded me. In which case, thank you since I didn't target anybody anyway Also, that would be two people who know for a fact that I'm not a leader. That's two less people eager to lynch me since it's obvious we should be trying to lynch leaders as they're so hard to kill at night.

Secondly, do we think Tennes was a leader? If he was, then we might be able to find his teammates on his lynch trains. I will have a look at that later. If he wasn't, we're no further ahead as far as I can tell.

Thirdly, how did Rashan die? If he was a BM as he claimed then most likely some people believed him, but he also advocated an aggressive strategy for BM's so he may have targeted somebody of a higher rank and paid the price. Doubtful that he was a leader but not impossible. Not helpful

Fourthly, why are there so few night kills? Assuming the leader teams are acting together, that's a maximum of 3 people blocked from acting on account of leader actions each night. I'd say most of our BM's are probably too worried about choosing wrong to be aggressive. The 7th's though, should be trying to kill every night so what's going on there? Could be one or more of them have been guarded by 1sts but it seems a bit of a stretch to imagine more than 1 7th was guarded on both nights, so I'm tempted to believe that we have managed to kill one or perhaps two of the 7th's. Thoughts?

that's it for now. I'm going to go see if I can glean anything from voting patterns but I have a Valentine's Day Eve feast to prepare so I won't have a lot of time. I will check in as often as possible however

edit: cross-posted with a bunch of people.

This post has been edited by Hood's Path: 13 February 2009 - 04:00 PM

[Path-Shaper]

What is a valentines eve feast? and are there any tickets left, because i am quite hungry?

oh sorry - day 3 blah blah blah.


So whats the starter?

[Galayn Lord]

Shadow, on Feb 13 2009, 03:48 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on Feb 13 2009, 07:42 AM, said:

Shadow, on Feb 13 2009, 04:40 PM, said:

Why oh why is it sae to assume that HP isn't fire, again? Something I missed apparently. Can someone tell me this?

because he was attacked by Fire
Seems unlikely that we'd have 2 fires as only lynch suspects two days in a row,

Ahh, Unlikely, but not impossible. I just thought that someone was trying to CI (or confirm not fire) on HP. However I still think he is a leader(not mine) of a facrtion. And as such needs to go.

Vote Hood's Path



As an aside, I bet the fire leader(s) are pulling their hair out! HA!

lol, yeah, team Fire's been real unlucky...guess that's the price you pay for ending up with JA,

I'm still trying to figure out how did my Tennes case leap off the ground like that in about 5 hours it took to go from 0 votes to a lynch.

[Fener]

Hey everybody. Seems Fire is taking a pummelling.

I had a quick look over Rashan related posts to see if there was anything interesting, and found there was a case made on him by Ruse yesterday. Not a very good case, but still:

Ruse, on Feb 12 2009, 12:30 PM, said:

Did a reread on Rashan- Only 13 posts and I tend to like to take the path of least resistance. He goes out of his way to say he is a BM and basically outlines a whole strategy for any BM that doesn't want to think.... we'll call it the " Being a Black Mask for Dummies" post. Then he uses a post that tries to make a connection between a joke post by (Kess??? I think) and A comment by Gaylan Lord that would point towards team Ice. Consider earlier he said he thought Korlat was a Leader, and that Gaylan Lord was a Black Mask of Korlat. After the CF we find out that Korlat is wind. and that clearly Korlat wasn't Rashan's leader. So basically Rashan has attacked, Ice, and Wind. and claimed Black mask. I deduce that Rashan is a Fire Black Mask. Normally I am not one to want to vote off the Black masks.. BUT, if we did take him out, thats 1 less vote to protect the Fire leaders when we get there.

Thoughts?

Also... the whole Him being a black mask thing could be a ploy, and if we lynch we are actually getting a 7th or maybe even 1/3... though I am skeptical he would be a first or third. IMO if we lynch Rashan, we are likely reducing Fire down by one Probable black mask with the Bonus that he could be a 7th.

ETA snipped a bit of the OP to try to make it easier to read.

(Note I snipped the bits of Rashan's posts he quoted because they were long).

As you can see, it's not a particularly watertight case - in fact, if it were a device for holding water, it would be a sieve . So blatant is this, that I'm beginning to think he might have been doing it as an attempt to get Rashan cleared of any pressure that might later build - putting up a horrible case makes it harder for someone in the future to put up a good one without being tainted by association. TapRash knocks his defence out of the park, of course, with some help from Telas, and the point isn't brought up again.

So I could see Ruse as a member of Team Fire (and possibly Telas as well). Given that there's a high probability of any remaining Fire players being numbered, I'm going to:

Vote Ruse


EDIT: Crosspost with a few people

This post has been edited by Fener: 13 February 2009 - 04:09 PM

[Galayn Lord]

interesting..
i'll have to take a look at how those 3 have been voting so far.

[Fener]

I should add that this came as I was speculating "What if Rashan was a leader?" Obviously, if Rashan was a BM/7th it wouldn't really apply. On the other hand, I look at Rashan's behaviour and it strikes me as possibly Leader-ish. He was, after all, laying on the BM routine rather thick.

EDIT: Clarity

This post has been edited by Fener: 13 February 2009 - 04:15 PM

[Ruse]

I'm here. Right after Fener. So let me get this straight, Because I made a case on Rashan that was in your eyes weak, I am a member of team fire? If I was a leader of team fire... I wouldn't know he was on my team, how would I be setting up a situation to clear him later. Your case on me is worse than my case on rashan Read my Posts. I deduced he was a BM from team fire. So unless a few leader targeted him last night,... thats exactly what he was.

[Galayn Lord]

hmm, gotta run to a meeting

might not be back till the evening when my home nets will (hopefully) be up again

not voting yet, since we're gonna get frozen pretty soon

[Fener]

@Ruse: I realised after I posted that that I'd forgot to predicate my argument with the assumption I had been making. I suspect you crossposted with me there.

[Ruse]

Yar, I did. And if You assume that that Rash is a leader then I guess it makes sense. But after all that talk of him being BM.. I am almost positive at least 2 BM would have targeted him last night. But think like a leader for a sec, there had been no pressure on him other than me who made a case he was a BM. Why would, of all the people, a leader target Rash? He had no other pressure. also, Why would I as a follow bring my master out in the open when he had no other visible preassure. I started with him cause he had the fewest posts. It says so at the begingin of my case. and I am the one that brought him into the mix in the first place. If he was a leader and I was his BM trying to save him for later... well I'd be really embarrassed right now. Why would I pull him out into the fray like that.

[Fener]

Hmm, I was thinking that Hood's Path had been agitating about Rashan before then, but now that I look back I see that HP only placed a vote on Rashan after your case. Guess I'll retract mine for the time being, you make a good point.

Remove Vote