[Nicodimas]

Is this the one...please read The Hot Zone! I mean that gamechanging one that goes Pandemic.



http://www.bloomberg...dated-plan.html

Breaking Article Suggests 20,000 Infected with a current Lethality of 50% in this Variant..!!

I wouldn't mind hearing someone with upper level knowledge as it sounds like it can honestly be Spread by a Sneeze, I don't think that makes it "Airborne" ..Correct?

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“He open his mouth and gasps into the bag, and the vomiting goes on endlessly. It will not stop, and he keeps bringing up liquid, long after his stomach should have been empty. The airsickness bag fills up to the brim with a substance known as the vomito negro, or the black vomit. The black vomit is not really black; it is a speckled liquid of two colors, black and red, a stew of tarry granules mixed with fresh red arterial blood. It is hemorrhage, and it smells like a slaughterhouse. The black vomit is loaded with virus.”
-Exerpted from Richard Preston's novel, The Hot Zone

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 05:02 PM

[D'iversify]

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

I wouldn't mind hearing someone with upper level knowledge as it sounds like it can honestly be Spread by a Sneeze, I don't think that makes it "Airborne" ..Correct?

Correct - the virus can be spread in droplets of sputum, e.g. through a sneeze. But it can't survive long once expelled from the human body and cannot therefore be transmitted over any distance by the wind, unlike a truly airborne virus such as influenza. Although it can be transmitted by fruit bats (the original source of this outbreak was infected fruit bat meat, the bats having flown from the central African regions where the virus was previously endemic).

I should point out that 20,000 is the projected figure for the number who will be infected before the outbreak is under control. Only 3-4,000 people are currently known to be infected. And the difficulties controlling the virus are more down to the lack of health infrastructure in the region and the inability of the governments to conduct adequate disease awareness campaigns due to the rural nature of the areas affected and the lack of public trust in Western medicine.

This post has been edited by D'iversify: 28 August 2014 - 05:54 PM

[Aptorian]

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

Is this the one...please read The Hot Zone! I mean that gamechanging one that goes Pandemic.

YES! I was hoping you would eventually make a thread about this. I can just imagine you already being in the progress of buying disinfectant in bulk.

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

http://www.bloomberg...dated-plan.html

Breaking Article Suggests 20,000 Infected with a current Lethality of 50% in this Variant..!!

You are editorializing the information in the article.

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More than 20,000 people may be infected with Ebola before the outbreak in West Africa is controlled

20,000 may be infected before the epidemic ends. Maybe.

Right now the "success" of Ebola can be entirely chalked down to the African nations poor understanding of hygiene and sanitation. From what I have read, there is nothing to be scared of for the Western world. It's terrible for Africa and it could become even worse if sick people continue to migrate but Ebola is not a disease that would do well in Europe.

[Nicodimas]

@ Diversity

I read that as WHO projects 20k have it, with 2600-3k confirmed lab cases..I re-read. Ok..chilling out for a moment..this is still a important topic that needs to be have accurate information released.

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. I can just imagine you already being in the progress of buying disinfectant in bulk.

I have thought about this..would you rather:

A) Be first exposed and have Doctor care..
Wait out the lethality to lower, but have less medical care
c) Get Lucky and be totally immune!

On the point of B...I'm not a virologist so that may be just total nonsense...but from what I suspect a full on outbreak of this would mean a ton of doctors would probably end up dead..Hypothesis.
90 % lethality..but non airborne...As the Virus evolves the lethality lowers, but the ability for it go Airborne and choose new vectors goes up.


Honestly its just a matter of time until this/or something like it... breaks out with our population numbers.

Anyone ever see that millennium episode?? /shudder

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 06:09 PM

[cerveza_fiesta]

Mass outbreaks are a legitimate fear to be sure, but you're asking a pretty leading question there. If you want to know more, just ask straight up what the facts are rather than invoking pandemic fears before anybody can answer

On your question:

I did hear an interesting comparison to the seasonal flu. WHO website claims that 250,000 - 500,000 deaths annually occur worldwide because of that virus...that's not even a hiccup in the world's population growth. Granted flu deaths are largely among high-risk groups (young, elderly and chronically ill), whereas Ebola infects and kills across the board. The maximum predicted size of the ebola outbreak (total infected, not total dead because of it) is at least an order of magnitude smaller than flu deaths, -- and it's predicted to be over in less than a year.

It's important to keep that kind of figure in perspective when you're considering the size of the potential outbreak. That and Ebola is nowhere near as contagious as the flu, is spread by contact with the infected (e.g. fluids, skin, mucus), and is not airborne. The "sick guy with ebola on the plane" scenario doesn't even necessarily mean that the guy's seat-neighbour gets ebola, much less the rest of the passengers.

IIRC from the CBC radio interview I listened to with a lead ebola vaccine researcher, there are 4 experimental vaccines that are ready to go but have not been tested extensively on humans. These could be produced en masse and distributed today, but international rules are such that there would have to be a direct invitation from the government of the country suffering the outbreak to test the drugs on their population.

It was the researcher's opinion that the optics of that kind of invitation were very poor and that was a major reason nobody has asked for a large scale experimental vaccination program as yet. Think of the headlines: "The West uses Africa as its vaccine testing laboratory"..."America tests drugs on African guinea pigs". The researcher also speculated that a major outbreak in, say, Canada or USA would be much more likely to trigger a vaccination campaign because the optics would be faaaaaar better.I agree with that assessment somewhat, even though there are surely other factors at play.

All that doesn't mention the massive differences in outbreak prevention and control between 3rd world African countries and places like N.America and Europe...and the fact that we *know* where the outbreak is...and the affected countries are locked down pretty heavily in terms of outbound air travel.

So big outbreak? Hell yes. Terrible tragedy? Double hell yes. Likelihood of worldwide pandemic coming out of nowhere la hot zone? Not so much.

EDIT - the media plays on the fear of deadly diseases to a fault. Think of the flap over SARS when it reached Canada and US...like 25 people died or something? Not trying to dismiss those deaths as irrelevant (they are as tragic as any death anywhere) - just pointing out that the media artificially, knowingly inflates the danger of the "Maladie du Jour" and rarely if ever provides context for the reported size of the outbreak.

This post has been edited by cerveza_fiesta: 28 August 2014 - 06:11 PM

[Nicodimas]

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The "sick guy with ebola on the plane" scenario doesn't even necessarily mean that the guy's seat-neighbour gets ebola, much less the rest of the passengers.

Ebola always freaks me out, cause it melts your insides ..The hot zone suggests more than once this the Virus turning you into the perfect carrier to infect everyone...

What worries me is the -reports- that this one can spread with no symptoms showing. Though could be cause of the substandard care in that part of the world. That also in my mind makes it the perfect place to create a colossal disaster of a virus.

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These could be produced en masse and distributed today

Could they really? How long would it take enough to provide everyone in the current situation.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 06:16 PM

[Nicodimas]

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The West uses Africa as its vaccine testing laboratory"..."America tests drugs on African guinea pigs". The researcher also speculated that a major outbreak in, say, Canada or USA would be much more likely to trigger a vaccination campaign because the optics would be faaaaaar better.I agree with that assessment somewhat, even though there are surely other factors at play.

It would be sad. That by not taking care of one part of the world for fear of some sort of social reprisal, for fear of a headline, we let Ebola/Grow/Change and ravage the world.

I see where the fear is well founded on certain aspects, lack of hygiene and modern medical care. On the other hand..common sense dictates we should take a offensive effort against the Ebola menace.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 06:23 PM

[D'rek]

As with any virus that can't spread through airborne means or through the water supply, Ebola can basically be beaten by standard quarantine measures. Worst comes to worst, if, for example, it got into the UK and was starting to get big, the government could simply shut down all air and sea ports and order everyone to stay in their homes for 2 weeks, with only health care workers and food delivery teams in viral suits allowed outside. It'd be an extremely drastic measure, but it could be done and would basically cleanse the country of Ebola in a couple weeks by halting any spread and isolating or killing off all the infected.

Obviously, that is not a practical solution in all parts of the world, but it does mean Ebola basically can't wipe out the planet.

More realistically, the spread of Ebola can be reduced and controlled by more normal containment procedures like isolating people identified as infected, shutting down borders, advising/educating people on how to avoid catching the disease, distributing facemasks, etc. And that's exactly what the organizations like DWB/MSF are doing in the countries affected by the outbreak.

They're definitely facing lots of challenges, like resource shortages or villages not letting them in, but as the outbreak gets worse governments will be more willing to implement drastic measures like complete border shutdowns.

[cerveza_fiesta]

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 06:15 PM, said:

Quote

The "sick guy with ebola on the plane" scenario doesn't even necessarily mean that the guy's seat-neighbour gets ebola, much less the rest of the passengers.

Ebola always freaks me out, cause it melts your insides ..The hot zone suggests more than once this the Virus turning you into the perfect carrier to infect everyone...

What worries me is the -reports- that this one can spread with no symptoms showing. Though could be cause of the substandard care in that part of the world. That also in my mind makes it the perfect place to create a colossal disaster of a virus.

Quote

These could be produced en masse and distributed today

Could they really? How long would it take enough to provide everyone in the current situation.

RE first point

Yeah, the symptoms of Ebola are fucking grizzly. Once things get advanced then for sure you can spread the disease like crazy. Thing is, we know where it is and who has it, and airlines / border crossings screen heavily for passengers traveling from those destinations. Chance of a surprise unexpected outbreak at this point are pretty slim. That's what I meant by the "guy on a plane with ebola" scenario being unlikely. Unlikely because of the controls in place - at least in the 1st world.

RE vaccine manufacturing

Stretching my recollection now, but I recall the researcher saying something on the order of 1000 units could be produced in a very short amount of time. There would be enough to vaccinate large at-risk populations within a few months.

I wish I could remember which show it was on; it was a really good interview.


EDIT - spelling and grammar

This post has been edited by cerveza_fiesta: 28 August 2014 - 06:37 PM

[Nicodimas]

I wish we had a Virologist here, Clarity is important and it would be neat if we had true scientific data on how a Virus evolves. The timeline and infected rate that makes this *that* bug...

If you find some information on Vaccine Manufacturing that would be great!

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 06:37 PM

[D'iversify]

Couple of articles from BBC news on the subject that might be useful:

http://www.bbc.co.uk...health-28958495

http://www.bbc.co.uk...africa-28940025

[Nicodimas]

Awesome Tool..Watch Ebola spread by Airport:

http://rocs.hu-berli...bola/index.html

Statistics and Data:
http://rocs.hu-berli...bola/index.html

Current Raw Data:

02JUL 2D 0010.0 New Cases per-Day -001Delta / 007.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
06JUL 2D 0016.3 New Cases per-Day +015Delta / 006.3 Deaths per-Day +012 Delta
08JUL 4D 0022.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 010.5 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
12JUL 4D 0019.0 New Cases per-Day -009Delta / 017.0 Deaths per-Day -004 Delta
14JUL 2D 0009.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 005.5 Deaths per-Day -001 Delta
17JUL 3D 0022.0 New Cases per-Day -001Delta / 006.3 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
20JUL 3D 0015.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 009.3 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
23JUL 3D 0036.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 004.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
27JUL 4D 0030.5 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 014.3 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
01AUG 5D 0056.0 New Cases per-Day +117Delta / 012.2 Deaths per-Day +097 Delta
04AUG 3D 0036.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 015.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
06AUG 2D 0034.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 014.5 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
09AUG 3D 0023.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 017.3 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
11AUG 2D 0063.5 New Cases per-Day -001Delta / 028.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
13AUG 2D 0076.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 038.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
16AUG 3D 0037.7 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 028.0 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
18AUG 2D 0116.5 New Cases per-Day +012Delta / 053.0 Deaths per-Day +015 Delta
20AUG 2D 0071.0 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 038.5 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta
26AUG 6D 0075.7 New Cases per-Day +000Delta / 020.8 Deaths per-Day +000 Delta

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 07:48 PM

[Cause]

I can assure you viruses do not evolve as you suggest unless your playing pandemic on your iphone

[Nicodimas]

http://medicalxpress...s-insights.html

Here is some information from the field^ on mutations.. I would really like some more insightful information on what a "mutation" means in everyday terms.

Quote

The team's catalog of 395 mutations (over 340 that distinguish the current outbreak from previous ones, and over 50 within the West African outbreak) may serve as a starting point for other research groups.

Is this cause for concern..? Or completely normal for a virus.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 28 August 2014 - 07:58 PM

[Cause]

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 07:54 PM, said:

http://medicalxpress...s-insights.html

Here is some information from the field^ on mutations.. I would really like some more insightful information on what a "mutation" means in everyday terms.

Quote

The team's catalog of 395 mutations (over 340 that distinguish the current outbreak from previous ones, and over 50 within the West African outbreak) may serve as a starting point for other research groups.

Is this cause for concern..? Or completely normal for a virus.

Normal.

Lets say the virus has 10 000 nucleic acids that code it. A mutation can be a single change anywhere within those 10 000. Most of them will have no positive or detrimental effect on the virus. They are just background noise. Mostly useful to help trace the spread of the virus rather than a sign that Ebola will become airborn soon

[Gnaw]

Cause, on 28 August 2014 - 07:52 PM, said:

I can assure you viruses do not evolve as you suggest unless your playing pandemic on your iphone

There is no reason to be worried about that anyway.

There's no such thing as evolution.

Ebola is just God's way of punishing homosexuality and secular humanism in America. (He loves America so he punishes people in other countries instead of us.)

[Nicodimas]

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Normal.

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Most of them will have no positive or detrimental effect on the virus

Are you a Virologist , as it would be interesting to have direct knowledge on what can change. For instance it jumping species..is this worse, I guess what are the truly actual worrying signs.

It changing quickly does that mess with the tests they run and create: False Negatives/Positives?

[HoosierDaddy]

I'm currently typing this from my bunker. I heard there was a person who flew into Indianapolis on a connected flight from Pretoria, and well that's just too close for comfort.

It's kind of sad that the utter lack of actual leadership in that area of Africa has allowed the asshattery of looting quarantined areas and such to take place. I feel bad for them, but how terrifying would it be to go there to try and nail it down with that sort of activity?

[HoosierDaddy]

Nicodimas, on 28 August 2014 - 08:39 PM, said:

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Normal.

Quote

Most of them will have no positive or detrimental effect on the virus

Are you a Virologist , as it would be interesting to have direct knowledge on what can change. For instance it jumping species..is this worse, I guess what are the truly actual worrying signs.

It changing quickly does that mess with the tests they run and create: False Negatives/Positives?

I think MezlaPigdog might be a virologist. But she's a socialist so we can't trust what she says.

[Nicodimas]

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It's kind of sad that the utter lack of actual leadership in that area of Africa has allowed the asshattery of looting quarantined areas and such to take plac

Also letting wild dogs eat the dead bodies seems like a bad idea.

Quote

But she's a socialist so we can't trust what she says.

We? I don't have a problem with socialist people. I sometimes don't like others patterns of logic and critical thinking, but that doesn't make that person any less a human being. Most of the time it's just opinion based arguments anyhow, nobody is really right, just a matter of perspective and life experience. However, I am happy you got a bunker..!


Serious conversation over here Hoosier. Thank you for the update, hopefully we can get some good facts, versus speculative theory on this one...Serious business here.